Why has France's decision to recognize a Palestinian state in September increased pressure on Britain?

Why has France's decision to recognize a Palestinian state in September increased pressure on Britain?

French President Emmanuel Macron's announcement of his intention to recognize a Palestinian state has increased pressure on British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to follow suit, recognizing Palestine as a state.

French officials have been trying to take steps to recognize Palestine as a state for some time.

They had intended to make the announcement a few weeks ago, but the announcement was delayed by attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities by Israel and the United States.

Importantly, France did not immediately announce its recognition of a Palestinian state, but intends to do so at the UN General Assembly in September this year.

France hopes that after its announcement, the diplomatic machinery of other countries will also be set in motion and they will join the list of countries recognizing Palestine as a state.

The French president likes to make bold decisions on the international stage, but this time his decision is being seen as nothing less than a gamble.

He hopes that Britain will follow in his footsteps. A few weeks ago, when Macron visited the British Parliament, he told MPs that working together to recognize Palestine as a state and launch this political process was the only way to peace.

A senior French diplomat told me a few days ago that if Britain works with France, it will convince other countries to join us because “the support of the two main permanent members of the UN Security Council (France and the UK) shows the strength of our resolve.”

The US, China and Russia are the other permanent members of the UN Security Council, while the ten other countries are elected for two-year terms.

He added that "the most important thing France and Britain can do in this regard is to bring all stakeholders to the negotiating table and restart this process, recognizing Palestine as a state and promising to ensure Israel's security. We have both the opportunity and the power to restart this process."

This reflects traditional British policy. Britain has long argued that the process of recognizing a Palestinian state should not be dismissed as a political show-off. A senior source questioned what effect the French decision would have, other than to make Macron feel better.

Officials say the diplomatic card should be used to push for a long-term political settlement and to speed up the process.

In other words, recognizing Palestine as a state was seen as the final outcome of the matter.

The sensitivity of the issue is so high that David Cameron, as foreign secretary, caused a stir last year when he suggested that a decision to recognize Palestine as a state could be presented as a step towards a negotiated solution rather than a final step.

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Britain has also traditionally been cautious about recognising a Palestinian state for fear of upsetting its allies, the US and Israel, who strongly oppose such an idea and see it as 'rewarding terrorism'. Britain has also been reluctant to provide much support to an unreformed Palestinian Authority.

So the UK has been on a standstill for some time now. On Thursday night, the Prime Minister issued a statement saying: 'We are clear that statehood is the inalienable right of the Palestinian people. A ceasefire would put us on the path to recognising a Palestinian state and a two-state solution that guarantees peace and security for Palestinians and Israelis.'

 

In other words, there must be at least a ceasefire before the process of state recognition can be made possible.

Foreign Secretary David Lammy told MPs on the International Development Committee last week that “recognition of Palestine must be part of the process of achieving a two-state solution, a political settlement based on two separate states that protects the rights of the Palestinians and the security of the Israelis.”

He said that no country has the power to veto our decisions. “When and how we recognize is our decision,” he said. “I am simply saying that recognition will not give you two states. It is a symbolic act.”

The problem is that, according to British officials, the decision has moved from the diplomatic sphere to the political sphere. In other words, the government is now under enormous pressure from its MPs to act.

 

Whenever ministers defend the situation in the House of Commons, MPs demand recognition of Palestine and attack and criticize the government. Joint letters are being written to Downing Street by a coalition of retired diplomats and MPs. The Foreign Affairs Committee has also issued a report in support of recognizing Palestine.

Even cabinet ministers are joining in. Earlier this week, Health Secretary Wes Strating told MPs that he hoped the international community would recognize a Palestinian state.

Getty Images, Image source Getty Images

So all eyes are now on what the British government decides. If it fails to follow the lead of the French leadership, it could raise the risk of a rebellion in parliament.

The risk is that the UK will follow the French decision and recognize Palestine without any significant diplomatic gain.

More than 140 countries around the world have already recognized Palestine as a state. Last year, Ireland, Spain, Norway and Slovenia joined the list, but their impact has been limited.

Future political declarations about a Palestinian state may be significant, but the extent to which they change the reality for people in Gaza in the short term remains a critical and difficult question.