Is Afghanistan going to be divided into two parts?

 

Is Afghanistan going to be divided into two parts?

               

Escalating border clashes between the Taliban and Pakistan, the forced return of Afghan refugees and the increasing military pressure in the region are raising a new question: is Afghanistan really going to split into two parts like East and West Germany or North and South Korea? Historically, Afghan society has never been centralized. 

The practical division that existed between the Taliban and the “Northern Alliance” in the 1990s had in fact taken on the status of two separate states. Kabul and Kandahar on one side, and Mazar-e-Sharif and Badakhshan on the other. Since the Taliban regained power in 2021, feelings of resistance and separatism have resurfaced among the Tajik, Uzbek, Hazara, and Turkmen communities.

The recent border conflict with Pakistan has clearly escalated into a full-scale war. Taliban attacks in Bajaur, Chaman, and Aspen Boldak, and Pakistan’s counter-attacks, seem to be a precursor to a new border regime. The Taliban’s strategy is based on control and resistance, but their ability to govern is almost nonexistent.

 This vacuum is increasing the likelihood of chaos and the emergence of new centers of power within the country. Afghan leaders themselves have now begun to criticize the Taliban government. The exiled former deputy foreign minister, 

Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, has called the ban on girls’ education an “illegal decision,” while some commanders have also raised questions about the centralization of leadership and the dominance of the Haqqani network. These differences are not temporary but are a sign of a crisis of political direction.

 The return of Afghan refugees from Pakistan is becoming a major humanitarian disaster. It is estimated that about 4 million Afghan refugees are living in Pakistan, of which about 1.3 million have been sent back. Their sudden return is likely to create serious problems of food, health and housing, which will put further pressure on the already weak economy of the Taliban regime. This crisis is likely to intensify especially in the southern and eastern Afghanistan, i.e. the border areas with Pakistan. 

Despite this crisis, Pakistan will not attempt direct occupation, because international law, the United Nations, China and the United States will be a major obstacle for it. Of course, a “semi-autonomous, secure and settlement-based zone” can certainly be created, where Pakistan’s influence can be strengthened in the name of peacekeeping, humanitarian assistance and settlement of Afghan refugees. 

The same situation may emerge in the future in the form of a separate “Republic of Afghanistan”. An administrative unit that will create its own identity separate from the Taliban’s “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.” It is possible that in the future, Afghanistan could be divided into the following: Northern Afghanistan: A region dominated by Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazaras, which would be under the influence of a non-Taliban political alliance. Southern Afghanistan: A semi-autonomous, settlement-based “Republic of Afghanistan” under the influence of Pakistan. Such a division would not be based on religious grounds, but on administrative and geographical grounds. 

After this division, the following effects could emerge on the global level: China wants a secure corridor for its “Belt and Road” project. Iran could increase its influence in the name of protecting the Hazara minority. Russia could intervene in the name of the security of Central Asian countries. The US can provide limited support to anti-Taliban groups in the name of “human rights.”

 While the partition of Afghanistan is currently a hypothetical, the realities on the ground, military maneuvers, and the pressure of the growing humanitarian crisis could turn this hypothesis into a possible reality. History shows that Afghanistan has never been fully unified and may now once again be on the verge of being divided into two opposing realities due to its internal conflicts and geographical pressures.