Putin's warm welcome and trade deal with the US, will India's 'dual' strategy succeed?

 Putin's warm welcome and trade deal with the US, will India's 'dual' strategy succeed?

When Russian President Vladimir Putin lands in New Delhi on Thursday, he will be given a warm welcome, just as India gives to leaders of its closest allies. But his host, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is simultaneously trying to maintain good strategic relations with a global rival: the United States.

According to the American broadcaster CNN, this is India’s ‘dual’ diplomatic strategy. On the one hand, the old friendship with Russia, cheap oil and possible purchases of military equipment, and on the other hand, cooperation with the United States in technology, trade and investment and the hope that President Trump will remove his tariffs imposed as punishment.

Since the invasion of Ukraine, India has been able to take advantage of its geographical importance to attract the attention of both Russia and the United States.

The streets of New Delhi are full of Russian and Indian flags and large billboards are displayed welcoming President Putin.

But Vladimir Putin’s visit, his first to India since the start of the war, comes at a time when conditions are not very favorable for Narendra Modi.

New Delhi is negotiating a very important trade deal with Washington after the US imposed a 50% tariff.

India has recently reduced purchases of Russian oil and promised to buy gas from the US.

High on the agenda of the Russian president's visit are more defense deals with Moscow. These deals include the purchase of weapons that India considers necessary for its defense against Pakistan and China.

India has seen increasing border tensions with Pakistan and China in recent years.

India needs to maintain a balance in such a complex environment: Russia is also a close partner of China, while Beijing is a major source of weapons for Pakistan.

Kanti Bajpai, a visiting professor of international relations at Ashoka University, believes that “by welcoming Putin, New Delhi is signaling to both the West and China that it has options.”

“This reflects that India wants to maintain relations with the Russians even though Moscow faces widespread global condemnation,” he said.

“Apart from oil and arms, this is also a diplomatic balance, which shows Beijing and Washington that Delhi has a third option,” Bajpai adde

‘Deal not done yet, India has to be careful’

From India’s perspective, such moves do not signal the end of relations with its other partners.

Kanti Bajpai said that ‘New Delhi and Moscow have close ties. Putin knows that Modi is under a lot of pressure there. He has to answer to his voters, and he is in a difficult situation.’

Nandan Annikrishnan of the Observer Research Foundation think tank in India said that ‘there is no contradiction between having a warm trade deal with the US and having a proactive relationship with Russia.’

Nandan Annikrishnan believes that ‘India has to be careful to that extent, especially since a bilateral trade deal has not been done yet.’