Why has Trump not been able to persuade Putin to end the Ukraine war so  far?

Tensions between Washington and Moscow have escalated in recent weeks. The US has imposed new sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, while Russia has tested its new nuclear-powered Borostin cruise missile and Poseidon underwater drone.

Both countries have said they may resume nuclear tests. Not only are both countries taking risks, but there is also a war going on (in Ukraine).

This year, relations between the two countries have improved somewhat, which is a notable aspect. When Donald Trump became president, he promised to maintain good relations with Putin and to end the war in Ukraine.

However, the war continues, and instead of exchanging ceasefire proposals, the US and Russia are threatening each other.

Why has Trump’s personal diplomacy so far failed to produce the expected results?
‘I have good conversations and then things don’t move forward’

 There were signs of progress in this regard at the beginning of Trump’s second term.

For the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Washington and Moscow held direct talks. The presidents of the two countries have spoken regularly by phone and met in Alaska last August.

For now, these talks are the only real achievement that either side can point to.

“We are talking about a peace process, which is a sign of great progress,” says Andrew Peck, a former senior director for European and Russian affairs at the US National Security Council.

 
Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff

Trump has relied heavily on personal contacts.

He has sent his friend from New York, Steve Witkoff, as a special envoy to meet with Putin. After each of his visits, the two sides have announced that they are close to a deal. However, Steve Witkoff's lack of diplomatic experience has raised some doubts in foreign policy circles.

Two European diplomats told the  speaking on condition of anonymity, that they often left Moscow with the impression that Putin was ready to back down, but that the White House had received reports to the contrary.

A former senior Kremlin official told the speaking on condition of anonymity, that Steve Vitkov had tried to understand the nuances of Russia's position but had failed to show consistency in explaining US policy to the Kremlin.

He told the  that this had resulted in the two sides often speaking from conflicting points of view.

The difficulties in the talks became clear when Putin and Trump met in Alaska on August 15.

When Trump and Putin held a joint press conference, they made no announcements about any concrete steps to end the war.,Image source: Reuters

I was among hundreds of journalists who attended the summit, but it was unexpectedly cut short for unknown reasons.

When Trump and Putin later held a joint press conference, they made no announcements about any concrete steps to end the war.

The lack of any level of commitment from Putin put Trump in a difficult position.

Neither the Kremlin nor the White House provided any explanation for what happened behind closed doors, so journalists tried to gather what they could from anonymous sources.

According to the Financial Times, Trump has offered to ease sanctions and increase trade in exchange for a ceasefire in Ukraine.

The Financial Times further wrote that Putin rejected the idea outright and demanded Ukraine’s surrender and full control over the Donbass. Putin reportedly gave a “historic lecture” that enraged Trump.

  Americans were really disappointed by the lack of progress in Alaska.

Another diplomat, speaking to the  on condition of anonymity, said they had been optimistic about what the war would mean for Russia.

Eric Green, a former Russia adviser on the US National Security Council during the Biden administration, told the  that “there were definitely a lot of misunderstandings about potential trade and concessions.”

There was confusion about security guarantees beyond territory and I think some people in the Trump administration didn’t understand what Putin’s focus on the “root causes” of the war meant.

Trump’s own frustration was also clear. “Every time I talk to Vladimir, I have a good conversation, but then it doesn’t go anywhere,” he said in October, announcing the new sanctions.

Trump said in October, “Every time I talk to Vladimir, I have a good conversation, but then it doesn’t go anywhere.”

Moscow’s position has barely changed in recent months. Putin’s conditions for an end to the war include:

Recognition of Russian sovereignty over five regions of Ukraine

Ukrainian neutrality

Reduction of the Ukrainian military

Constitutional guarantees for the Russian language

Lifting of Western sanctions

Russia says it will end the war only after a comprehensive political agreement. That position is unacceptable to Washington and Kiev, who insist that a ceasefire must come first.  

  How many missiles can the US provide?

Similarly, the effective use of long-range missiles with precision would require accurate intelligence from the US.

Ukraine’s dependence on Washington was made clear in March when the US temporarily suspended information sharing.

The Financial Times reported that since then, US intelligence sharing with Kiev has increased, providing data that has enabled attacks on key energy facilities inside Russia, including oil refineries.

According to officials familiar with the situation, US intelligence helps Kiev determine the route, altitude, timing and strategy of its potential attacks.

This helps Ukrainian attack drones evade Russian air defenses.

Experts say that if Ukraine is supplied with Tomahawks, US specialists will be heavily involved in the development of the missiles and planning their flight paths.

The current US arsenal contains thousands of Tomahawk missiles, but the war in Ukraine has shown that conflict with a country with a large military requires the use of large numbers of weapons.   

         In October, Washington imposed new and major sanctions on Russia for the first time under Trump, targeting its biggest oil companies.

“Whatever we do is going to bring Putin to the table,” Treasury Secretary Scott Besant told  partner CBS.

Putin rejected the move, calling the sanctions “damaging to bilateral relations” but insisted Russia “will not change policy under pressure.”

A few days later, Moscow tested a nuclear-capable missile, suggesting the talks were paving the way for another round of aggression.  

 

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